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Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

June 13, 2014 by Joel A. Gross 4 Comments

Recommended Reading from The Lean Book Shop

We interrupt the regularly scheduled Friday Favorites to bring you . . . something new!  I’m experimenting with a new content schedule for TheKaiZone, aimed at bringing the community a wider range of information that (hopefully) you will not find anywhere else in the wide world of Lean blogs.  As part of the changes, TheKaiZone Friday Favorites will now be posted on a biweekly basis – which should strengthen the quality of the curated articles significantly – with two new features filling the week-ending voids.

The first change to the Friday lineup is the Recommended Reading series brought to you by The Lean Book Shop.  Think book reviews, without all the fodder.  The posts are not meant to be full-fledged book reviews; I let the critiques to the experts (but will provide associated links in case you are interested in that sort of thing).  Recommended Reading will present a concise summary of the key themes and concepts in the selected text, as well as the key learning points that will contribute to your Lean journey.

The books that I review will fall into two distinct categories.  First, I intend to keep you up-to-date and informed of all the new releases within the world of Lean and continuous improvement publications.  And second, I will highlight books that I believe you will find useful on your journey, but which may not necessarily be written directly about Lean-related topics.  As the tag line to the Lean Book Shop says, Recommended Reading is dedicated to the continuous improvement . . . of you!

So, without further ado, I present the first post in the Recommended Reading series:

[Read more…]

 

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Filed Under: Recommended Reading, The KaiZone Community Tagged With: cognitive biases, daniel kahneman, lean book, recommended reading

Kaizen: The Cure for Big Problem Syndrome

April 28, 2014 by Joel A. Gross 2 Comments

Picture1How do you eat an elephant?  Of course the answer is one bite at a time.  But now answer a slightly different question . . . What would your organization’s strategy be for eating an elephant?  Still many, small bites?  Likely not.  Most organizations are hungry and impatient.  They need sustenance and they need it now.  The elephant is one mammoth morsel , and eating it demands an overly-complicated, ultra-expensive, ultra-high-speed, custom elephant-eating doohickey contracted out to the lowest-bidder.  It’s the anti-kaizen approach.

What is Kaizen

If you’re part of the typical organization, chances are that you have a distorted understanding of the true meaning of kaizen.  Many view kaizen as a rigorous, multi-day, workshop where a dysfunctional cross-functional team is locked in a room until the sticky notes have all been stuck and the implementation plan looks impressive enough to sell to the executive team, only to be forgotten about once every one returns to their day job.  That is not kaizen; that is a kaizen event.  There is a difference, and it’s not trivial.

Kaizen is a philosophy.  Kaizen is a mindset.  Kaizen is a way of thinking.  Kaizen engages everybody, not the chosen few picked to attend an event.  Kaizen addresses the problems we face every day, not just the few that get the attention of the most senior levels of management.  Whereas the traditional improvement strategies dictate a focus on only the biggest problems plaguing an organization, the foundation of the kaizen approach is one of continuous improvement achieved through many, small, rapid cycles of learning.

Given that time, money and resources are always in short supply, the ruthless prioritization of just the biggest problems seems only logical.  However, a deeper analysis of the approach reveals it to be the underlying cause of many systemic issues that plague traditional organizations.  I call it Big Problem Syndrome and it has three primary symptoms.

Underdeveloped People

Big problems syndrome consumes tremendous quantities of time and resources.  Because of the massive time commitment required, there must be a separation between those working towards the solutions to the big problems, and those that do the work.

The people who run the process are seldomly engaged in the problem solving efforts.  Their mental focus is limited to the tasks needed to do the work, rather than being leveraged as an asset for improving how the work is performed.  Because idle minds are not developing minds, the human capacity to learn and improve is almost completely wasted in these individuals.  Rather than being developed to add value, the front line staff is reduced to just another cost on the balance sheet to be reduced or eliminated.

Those engaged in solving of the big problems do not fare much better.  We achieve personal development through many, many cycles of practice and feedback that drives us to a new way of thinking.  By focusing only on a few, large problems, the opportunities to receive the feedback required to complete the cycles of learning are severely limited.  Even worse, long timelines delay the receipt of any feedback that is generated for weeks, months or even years.   As such, the few opportunities for learning that do exist are absent of the context necessary to change the learner’s established patterns of thinking.

The result, in both cases, is a failure to develop our greatest asset.

Poor Process Knowledge

Organizations are defined by the processes that they perform.  Therefore, the level of knowledge and understanding we have of our processes governs our ability, for example, to adapt to changes in the environment, to better meet the needs of our customers, to improve our operational performance, or to take advantage of new opportunities.

Our process knowledge changes in two general ways: 1.) from the experience gained over time from operating and maintaining the current process, and 2.) from observing the effects of changes to the process.  While knowledge is universally gained through experience, not all process changes add to our understanding.

In the book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Nobel Prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman establishes the following about the human condition:

A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge.  Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.

Large problems yield similarly large and complex solutions.  Rather than improving from the current state of our processes, our tendency is to create an entirely new process state to address the big problems.  In doing so, not only do we lose much of the knowledge that existed in the past state, but we are unable to learn from the conversion to the new current state process.

When multiple variables change in a short period of time, it becomes difficult, if not impossible to isolate the effect of individual changes.  Thus, even if the results after the changes show an improvement over the past state, we have lost the opportunity to understand what has driven the improvement.  Consequently, we know less about our processes after the changes than we did before, which puts us at a significant disadvantage when facing future problems that may arise, or when trying to drive further improvements to the process.

Conversely, the kaizen approach allows us to improve one step at a time from a single current state.  Our view of the world does not change, it is only refined from our progress, and thus there is no loss of knowledge along the way.   On the contrary, because small changes isolate the effects of individual variables in our processes, the changes create a deeper understanding the more that we improve.

In visual terms, the blue line below represents the kaizen approach to knowledge generation; the red line represents big problem syndrome.

20140424 - Graph

The graph illustrates how Big Problem Syndrome destroys process knowledge and inhibits learning, making it difficult for organizations to adapt and grow.

A Culture of Fear

One of the biggest advantages of the kaizen approach to improvement is the lack of risk involved.  The approach allows us to progress toward sizable goals by taking many, small steps very quickly.  And although failure is an inevitable consequence of progress; when we fail while taking a small step, the impact to the organization is just that, small.  Moreover, because of the experimental nature of the improvement cycles and the generally short timelines, failure occurs quickly, allowing us to course correct on the path to our ultimate goals.

Big problems, however, inherently carry more risk and amplify the impact of failure.  Armies of resources need to be committed, massive amounts of money have to be spent, and eons of time will be inevitably be consumed.  Big Problem Syndrome forces organizations to go “all in”, and as a consequence, failures can be catastrophic.  The most significant penalty, however, is not one that affects the balance sheet; it is the culture of the organization that is most severely impacted.

How do typical organizations react to major failures?  The finger gets pointed, strict policies are implemented, and people are cast away, all to ensure that history never again repeats itself.  Failure must no longer be tolerated.  Not only do these actions accomplish little in the way of improving future organizational performance, they create a culture where people fear failure.

There is little to be learned from success, and much to be learned from failure.  We expect success, and when things go as expected, it only confirms what we already knew.  However, when things do not go as expected, we are presented with an opportunity to learn something new.  Risk is a component of any worthwhile goal, however, when we fear the failure of not achieving our goals, our natural response is to seek the comfort of the status quo.  Not only does learning come to a standstill, but creativity suffers, innovators quit innovating, and we simply stop trying to do anything different than what we’ve always done.

Overcoming Big Problem Syndrome

If Big Problem Syndrome is a disease, then kaizen is the cure.  Recall that kaizen is a state of mind and therefore, to overcome Big Problem Syndrome, we must change the way we think about improvement.  Here are three ways in which we can shift our thinking to embrace the kaizen approach:

  • Believe in the power of many, small improvements.  Big problems do not necessarily yield big results.   By solving many, small problems quickly, organizations can approach equally large goals one step at a time, rather than in a single, blind leap. The kaizen approach leverages the knowledge that we have gained from taking all of the previous steps to identify the step that must be taken next.  In doing so, the level of improvement that we achieve is compounding, accelerating the speed at which the goals of the organization are reached.    To start small, we must simply cast an inquisitive eye on the tasks we perform every day.  We must look for the obstacles we jump over, the workarounds we create and the wastes we ignore and start eliminating them one-by-one.
  • See failure as an opportunity.  Failure is a byproduct of progress.  Small problems, however, result in small failures.  When failures are small, they are much easier to treat as opportunities for learning and development.  When small failures do occur, resist the urge to name, blame and shame.  Instead, celebrate the effort and reflect on how we would think differently when approaching the same problem in the future.
  • Involve everybody, every day.  Kaizen is not just about involving select individuals in intermittent events outside of their “day job”.  Kaizen is about engaging everybody, every day as part of the way that we work.  The best way to start is with yourself.  Commit to eliminating waste in the work that you do and carve out the time as needed.  Support others in doing the same.  Celebrate early successes – and failures – and refine the underlying organizational practices to create an environment where improvement can flourish.

Changing our thinking is never easy, but it is necessary to Overcome Big Problem Syndrome.  Consider the penalty of not changing: underdeveloped and underutilized people; lack of understanding, an inability to learn, and failure to adapt to a changing world; and poor organizational culture where we fear failure and cling to the status quo.  Maybe kaizen is difficult, but simply look around.  It’s better than the alternative.  Unless, of course, you’re an elephant.

 

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Filed Under: Leading on the Path, The KaiZone Way Tagged With: big problem syndrome, cognitive biases, kaizen

Problem Solving and Your Deceptive Mind: Part 3

April 7, 2014 by Joel A. Gross 1 Comment

Braing Drawing

In the first two parts of our discussion, we established how our brains lie to us and why there is very little that we can do to prevent it.  In the context of problem solving, overcoming the effects of our heuristics requires us to be aware of our propensity to err, and to engage the brain in deeper levels of thinking.  Go and See is a mentally demanding activity that helps us to overcome some, but not all of our cognitive biases.  In part three, we’ll continue the development of the Go See DaT technique and will discuss how the simple acts of drawing and teaching can guard us against the negative effects of our intuitive thought processes.

Step 2 of the Go See DaT Technique: Draw a Diagnostic

Going and seeing alone does not guarantee that we have thoroughly grasped the current condition.  Because we struggle to recognize when our brains are lying to us, it’s important to validate what we see to ensure that our assessment is accurate and complete.  How?  The first step is to put down on paper the understanding that we would otherwise keep only in our minds.  While it sounds simplistic, drawing is a powerful way to test our understanding, especially at the detailed-level.  Skeptical?  Try it for yourself.

Take a minute to visualize the outline of the United States of America (or your country of origin if you live outside of the U.S.).  To make it easier, we’ll consider only the lower 48 states.  Hopefully, this is an image with which you are familiar and have seen countless times before.  Note that in your mind, you likely have an easy time generating a relatively clear image.  Now, take another minute, and in as much detail as you can, draw the picture that is currently in your head.  Compare your results here.  Sure, you remember the big picture; anyone would likely be able to tell what you were trying to draw.  But, how did you do on the details?  Did you remember the Puget Sound?  San Francisco Bay?  The Outer Banks of North Carolina?  What about Long Island or the Delmarva Peninsula? Perhaps Florida is sticking out a few hundred miles too far into the Atlantic Ocean?  See a pattern?  Drawing tests the depths of our understanding by exposing us to the details we tend to overlook.

Numerous studies and researchers (see here and here for examples) have demonstrated that drawing significantly enhances the extent to which we learn, although there is still debate on exactly how the enhancement works.  A leading hypothesis suggests that drawing forces us to make the details of our knowledge explicit, thereby exposing both our tacit knowledge – knowledge that is difficult to communicate in words, like explaining to someone else how to whistle – or where there are gaps in our understanding.  In other words, drawing forces us to activate deeper regions of the brain that differentiate between what we don’t know that we know and what we just don’t know.

Drawing of the current state may take on multiple forms, such as graphs, charts, maps, schematics, or sketches.  Although the A3 format provides a universal canvas on which to sketch the current state – as well as the other phases of the problem solving cycle – there is often confusion about what exactly to draw.  The main point to remember is that problem solving is a process, and that the output of one step in the process should serve as an input into the next step.  In other words, draw the current state in a way that helps to diagnose the causes of the problems that are observed.  What exactly the right visual is depends on the specific problem we are attempting to solve; however common examples to start with include material and information flow diagrams (a.k.a, value stream maps), standardized work charts, or customer journey maps.

Step 3 of the Go See DaT Technique:  Teach to Others

Social interaction is perhaps the most cognitively demanding activity in which we routinely engage.  During the course of even a very simple conversation, our brains perform a wide variety of complex tasks including:

  • comprehending what is being said
  • analyzing voices for tone and inflection
  • reading body language and facial expressions
  • monitoring adherence to social norms of behavior
  • suppressing and expressing emotional responses

And all of this occurs before we have said a single word in response!  When we interact with others, the number and complexity of mental processes require that we engage nearly every region within our brains, which can be both a blessing and a curse.  The difficulty of social interaction has likely resulted in quite a number of awkward moments in our lives.   However, in the context of problem solving, we can rely on the increase in mental activity produced by socialization as the ultimate validation of our grasp on the current condition.

When we teach others, we strengthen our own understanding in a number of ways.  The act of explaining exposes the gaps in our knowledge, and helps us to understand what we do know at a deeper level; the examples we provide, the questions we answer and the connections we make to our existing knowledge all help to develop a fuller understanding of the information.  Teaching also requires that we organize our understanding in a coherent and consistent way, exposing our underlying assumptions and the holes in our logic.  But most importantly, socializing the information creates additional perspectives from which to base our understanding.

As was demonstrated previously, when our perspectives change, what we see can be altered dramatically.  Relying only on our own perspective is like viewing the world with one eye closed.  We lack the depth of understanding for which we cannot compensate without incorporating the third dimension; that is to say, without adding additional perspective.  Linking to others’ points of view brings different sets of assumptions, expectations and contexts together, yielding a more complete picture and a deeper level of understanding.  Simply find another with a fresh perspective and an open mind, grab your drawing and go the gemba together with the goal of walking away with a single, unified view of the current condition.  It is quite possible that no other single action in the realm of problem solving can generate such a great return for such a small price.

Putting It All Together

The human brain is quite possibly the single most complex and advanced object in our world.  But despite all of its truly remarkable capabilities, in many ways our mental processes have not advanced beyond our innate instincts for survival.  Thinking deeply requires us to expend large quantities of energy, and so we default to the use of mental shortcuts to reduce the cerebral load.  Although these shortcuts significantly increase the speed at which we are able to decide, the penalty is that we are prone to significant errors in judgment.

Overcoming our cognitive biases is easy in principal, but requires us to recognize those situations in which we are likely to react based on incomplete information, fail to adequately test our understanding or infer causal relationships where none exist.  In these situations, we must simply acknowledge that we are likely to err and take the steps necessary to engage the energy-demanding parts of our brain that are responsible for deeper thinking.  The Go See DaT technique provides a practical, flexible and effective approach with which to initiate the problem solving process.  The well-established practice of Go and See provides a solid foundation on which to build our assessment of the current state, but additional effort is needed to validate the depth of our understanding.  By drawing a diagnostic of the problem and by teaching what we have learned to others, we put the whole of our mental capabilities to use in forming an accurate, holistic and three-dimensional grasp on the current condition.

Although the 10% myth has been busted by science, what remains true is that our remarkable brains have nearly endless potential to solve problems, and by extension, to improve our world.  Recognize that the power to put the other 90% to use is just a matter of accepting our flaws and taking deliberate action to challenge our thinking and to broaden our perspective.  More simply, all we need to do is just Go See DaT.

 

 

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Filed Under: The KaiZone Way, The Lean Learning Journey Tagged With: cognitive biases, current state, Go See DaT, problem solving

Problem Solving and Your Deceptive Mind: Part 2

March 31, 2014 by Joel A. Gross 2 Comments

The human eye seeing the world as it actually it.

In part one of this three-part series, we established a very powerful – and, to some, even slightly disturbing – premise about the human condition:  the world is not necessarily how we perceive it to be.  In part two, we’ll look deeper into the underlying biological factors that cause our cognitive biases.  We’ll conclude by exploring how the traditional practice of Go and See helps us to overcome some, but not all, of our errors in judgment.  In doing so, we will introduce the Go See DaT technique, which builds on the concept of Go and See to create a simple and practical approach for validating our grasp on the current condition.

The 10% Myth

It’s a commonly-held belief that we humans use only 10% of our brains.  It’s an attractive notion, isn’t it?  It suggests that we have an ability to tap in to a huge well of unrealized cognitive potential if we simply engage the other 90%.  The problem is that scientific research has proven the 10% myth to be just that . . . a myth.   Recent advances in brain imaging techniques allow scientists to visualize and identify specific regions within the brain that are active while performing various cognitive tasks.  If we look at the sum total of our brain activity that is required over the course of a given day, it’s likely that we make use of all 100% of our brain – either consciously or subconsciously – at one point or another.  However, it is important to note that the 10% myth is also not entirely untrue.  Although we need – and put to use – each and every part of our brains, that does not mean that all 100% is active 100% of the time.

The brain regions that are recruited to perform a task vary greatly depending on the type and difficulty of the thinking required.  For example, mentally demanding tasks, like learning a new skill or attempting to multi-task, produce more activity in more regions of the brain than relatively passive tasks, like listening to music or watching television.  The increased activity, however, does not come without a price:  thinking consumes energy, and lots of it.

Despite accounting for only 3% of the body’s mass, the brain is responsible for more than 20% of the body’s total energy demand.  The more brain activity that is required for a task, the more energy that is consumed.  Thus, we have developed a set of pre-programmed mental shortcuts, called heuristics, to limit the energy brain-drain while still enabling us to react quickly to our changing environments.  The consequence, however, is that our intuitive patterns of thought do not recruit the regions of the brain responsible for deeper thinking, leaving us prone to the types of errors discussed part one.  In this sense, we hold ourselves beholden to the 10% myth.  Overcoming our cognitive biases during the problem solving process, therefore, requires that we deliberately take the steps necessary to engage the regions of our brains that constitute the other 90%.

Because our natural tendency is to avoid deep thought, we must deliberately place ourselves in situations that engage deeper regions of our brains when grasping the current condition.  The following steps provide a practical approach to maximizing cognitive activity that builds upon the traditional practice of Go and See, which we will call the Go See DaT – Draw and Teach – technique.

Step 1 of the Go See DaT Technique:  Go and See

By itself, the traditional Go and See approach provides a solid foundation for assessing the current condition.  Because as much as half of the human brain is involved in processing visual information, going and seeing is a cognitively intensive function that engages many regions of the brain.  However, without the proper precautions to avoid our cognitive biases, what we see may not match the actual situation on the gemba.  Always remember the following:

  • Go with an open mind.  As we touched upon in part one, we are quick to make up our minds and tend to seek out only information that confirms our views.  However, when we ignore all other possibilities, we approach the problem from a very narrow perspective.  To better understand how limited we are by a narrow point of view, click here.  Our perspective affects what we see to an astonishing extent. Broadening our field of view requires that we go to the point of origin with a perspective to learn, not to confirm.  We must forget our preconceived notions and assume that we know very little about the problem at hand.  Assess the situation based only on the factual information that is available, i.e. what can be directly observed or measured.  Test the depth of understanding by assessing all of the factual information that is available, giving equal consideration to both supporting and refuting evidence.
  • See, don’t remember.   Our brains have a limited ability to recall detailed information from memory.  Research shows that, even for simple or familiar objects, we can only recall a finite number of the associated details.  Our brains are designed for storage efficiency and tend to overlook detailed information in favor of seeing the bigger picture.  Because, as the saying goes, the devil is in the details, when we rely on memory to grasp the current condition, we tend to define the scope of our problems much too broadly (at best) or define the wrong problem completely (at worst).  Sound familiar?

To improve our grasp of the details in the current condition, we can take a page out of the playbook or Mr. Taiichi Ohno, father of the Toyota Production System, and practice standing in the circle.  See the process first-hand and directly observe the signs and symptoms of the problem.  Break the process into multiple pieces to observe, if necessary.  Use simple data collection techniques to record where, when or how often symptoms occur.  Watch multiple iterations of the process, each time focusing in on the problem in greater detail.  Continue until you have narrowed the problem down to the smallest possible scope.

In part three, we’ll continue the development of the Go See DaT technique and will discuss how the simple acts of drawing and teaching can guard us against the negative effects of our intuitive thought processes.

 

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Filed Under: The KaiZone Way, The Lean Learning Journey Tagged With: cognitive biases, current state, Go See DaT, problem solving

Problem Solving and Your Deceptive Mind: Part 1

March 27, 2014 by Joel A. Gross 2 Comments

Escher in Lean Problem Solving

 

Problem solving may be the single capability most critical to the success of the Lean organization.    Whether you call it PDCA/PDSA, DMAIC, scientific thinking, or otherwise, problem solving is the heartbeat that pumps life into the continuous improvement effort.  However, if we are to recruit everybody, every day, it’s important that we understand the factors that impede our abilities to solve problems effectively.  There has been extensive discussion in the Lean annals of the underlying complex philosophical, managerial and social inhibitors of improvement efforts.  All the while, a much more basic and fundamental piece of the puzzle has gone relatively unexplored: our human brains.

In this three-part article, we will take an in-depth look at the ways in which our human brains, specifically our intuitive patterns of thought, impede our ability to solve problems effectively.  In part one, we will explore three common biases in our innate patterns of thought that give us a distorted view of the world and inhibit our ability to accurately grasp the current condition when investigating a problem.  In the subsequent two parts, we’ll develop a practical process for overcoming these cognitive biases that builds off of the go and see approach to recruit underutilized portions of the brain into the problem solving process.

Go and see.  Genchi genbutsu, if you are so inclined.  It’s such a simple concept that it’s amazing that we have to spend so much time imploring its importance.  To grasp the current condition, simply go and see the process.  Do it well enough, and the problem will practically solve itself.  Sounds easy, right?  Wrong.  Grasping the current condition is about separating truth from fiction.  It’s about distilling the probable out of the plausible.  It’s about the gemba – the real place – where the real facts must be determined.  But, what is real?  It’s not a rhetorical question.

The human brain does not perceive the world as it is, but rather as it might be.  Our success as a species has been due in part to our brain’s ability to rapidly assess a situation based on limited and incomplete information for the ultimate purpose of ensuring our survival.  Our view of the world is the one that keeps us safe, which is not necessarily the one that makes us correct.  To our brains, it’s acceptable that the rustling in the tall grass behind us wasn’t really a saber-tooth tiger ready to pounce as long as we live to flea another day.  Grasping the current condition seems much more difficult when you consider that at any given moment of your life, it is highly likely that your brain is lying to you.

Luckily, researchers in a wide variety of fields like psychology, neurobiology and behavioral economics have identified very specific patterns of thought which may lead to our self-deception.  Although we can’t prevent our brains from subjecting us to these mental illusions, we can improve our perception of the world by being aware of how and when we are likely to fall victim to their effects.  Based on the pioneering works of Nobel Prize winning researcher and author Daniel Kahneman, below are three common cognitive biases to which we fall victim when seeking to grasp the current condition.

  • WYSIATI.  No, it’s not some strange language and it’s not science-speak.  It’s an acronym that stands for What You See Is All There Is.  An important factor in our survival as a species is our brains’ ability to jump to conclusions based on limited evidence.  Because our survival once depended on it, speed trumps fidelity on the cognitive priority list, and this bias is still the mental norm whether or not we are dealing with matters of life and death.  The resulting problems that this causes are two-fold.  First, we believe that what we see (or can recall from memory) is truly all that there is; if we do not see it (or cannot recall it), it might as well not exist to us.  Second, we are generally unaware of the quality and quantity of the information our brains have used to form an impression.  That is to say, our subconscious mind will compel us to jump to conclusions rapidly without first considering the extent to which we have accurately surmised the situation.
  • Confirmation Bias.  When our brain jumps to a conclusion, we automatically assume that the assessment of the world that led to the decision was perfect.  Consequently, when evaluating the decision after the fact, we tend to seek evidence that will support our decisions, while discounting (or even ignoring) evidence which refutes our understanding.  Even more, we also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence in a way that favors our positions.  In other words, when our minds are made up, we are quick to validate our thinking without challenging the strength or accuracy of our stance.  Our intuitive approach runs counter to scientific thinking in which both supporting and falsifying evidence are sought in order to either confirm or refute a hypothesis
  • Implied Causality.  An important factor in our survival was the ability to very quickly determine the causes of the events in the world around us; we jumped to conclusions about causality very readily in order to keep ourselves safe.  However, in a problem solving environment, this approach leaves us prone to several different types of errors in judgment.  We often imply causality, where there is only correlation or coincidence.  Hence, why we believe that playing classical music to babies will make them smarter.  Another unfortunate outcome of this bias is that we tend to assign cause to random events; in the absence of relevant statistical information, we are very keen on seeing patterns and assigning causes to our world where no such patterns exist.

If we take these three biases into account, a common pattern emerges that inhibits our ability to accurately grasp the current condition during the problem solving process.  First, we subconsciously form an assessment of the situation based on limited and incomplete information from the world around us.  Then, we quickly look for information that will substantiate our conclusions, while ignoring or discounting any evidence to the contrary.  Finally, we infer a causal relationship to explain our understanding, often when only correlative or random relationships are present.  The result is a poor understanding of our problems and the inability to achieve the desired pace of improvement.

In part two, we’ll continue our discussion of cognitive biases, taking a step back to understand the underlying biological causes of the flaws in our thinking.  In doing so, we’ll introduce the Go See DaT technique, a method for grasping the current condition that builds on the traditional Go and See approach to protect us against the effects of our cognitive biases.

 

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Filed Under: The KaiZone Way, The Lean Learning Journey Tagged With: cognitive biases, current state, Go See DaT, problem solving

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